27 January 1951: Defence Liaison Response

On 27 January 1951, the Defence Liaison responds to Reid’s memoranda and provides an overview of the current estimations of Soviet intentions. There is some divergence between Canadian assessments and those of the United States and the United Kingdom. The Canadians consider Soviet military capabilities to be sufficient to support a major war and state “that there is an increased danger of the Soviet Union precipitating a major war in the next twelve months.” The British authorities do not think it would advantageous for the Soviets to wage war and believe that Soviet authorities will “adopt a cautious attitude.” The Americans, however, believe that the Soviets are willing to take risks and consider themselves to be in a position for war. The memorandum concludes with an assessment of the possible fronts for such a war and pays careful attention to the risk of further Chinese mobilization in Southeast Asia.